Record every review

Use one entry for every market you assess, including skips. The log should show what you knew before the result.

Copy this template

  • Date and time:
  • Venue and market:
  • Event window:
  • Event line or threshold:
  • BTC price when reviewed:
  • Time remaining:
  • Recent 5m and 15m change:
  • Recent high and low:
  • Trend and momentum:
  • Volatility:
  • Funding and open interest:
  • Source health:
  • Market rules and settlement source:
  • Cost, payout, and fees:
  • Maximum loss:
  • Action: Continue / Wait / Skip
  • Reason:
  • Result:
  • What to repeat:
  • What to change:

Never fill missing pre-settlement data after the result. Mark it unavailable.

Add one or two tags

  • Clear read
  • Late reaction
  • Timer pressure
  • Choppy market
  • High volatility
  • Rules unclear
  • Risk too large
  • Good skip
  • Broke rule
  • Followed plan

Review each week

Look for repeated behavior, not isolated wins or losses. If one mistake appears more than twice, turn it into a risk rule.

Start with the live BTC read, record the event line from the venue, and note whether current volatility makes the evidence too uncertain to continue.